I’ve been a draft geek since 1995. I was able to attend the 2010 Draft in Los Angeles. I made a last minute decision to fly out to Minnesota for 2011. And I was hoping to complete the hat trick this year in Pittsburgh.
Thanks to a ticket snafu, I instead was forced to watch from home. Tickets “sold out” within minutes, much to my annoyance. Since tickets are free, there is no downside for people to claim more than they need. Since tickets are free, there’s also no downside in not attending if the ticket holder decides they have something better to do on a Friday night/Saturday morning.
Worst was that numerous tickets then made their way onto eBay/StubHub where some schmucks were attempting to get $20/seat for Day 2 seats (and upwards of $100 for Day 1).
Pictured above is Oscar Dansk who was taken with the first pick of Day 2. Doesn’t exactly look sold out, now does it?
Technically I still could have done the trip. Procuring tickets on the secondary market would have been possible, but out of principle I couldn’t pay for tickets which I knew were free. But logically, spending $40-50 on tickets would have been dwarfed by the cost of the plane flight. The other contradictory thought was that I gladly forked over $45 to the NBA to attend their Draft a few days later. (The NHL Draft experience is better and I don’t think that’s necessarily based on me being a bigger hockey fan. Might save the NBA Draft blog for later.)
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As mentioned, this year’s festivities are in Pittsburgh. This was expected to be a deep draft along the lines of 2008 which featured a number of defender who have already made NHL impacts. But the 2012 crop faltered to a degree. Several high profile prospects suffered injuries and missed significant portions of the year. Many of the top D prospects maintained their reputations, but most of forwards disappointed. By draft day, many considered it the worst crop of North American born forwards since the horrific 1999 Draft.
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4:00pm: TSN opens its coverage with a handful of prospects making their way into the arena. Among them is Swedish forward Filip Forsberg. TSN’s James Duthie predicts that Forsberg “won’t have to wait long to hear his name.”
4:02pm: 2011 1st overall pick Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is in attendance. He isn’t allowed on the draft floor initially as he lost his credential. It’s amusing that security was within reason to assume he was just some punk 19 year old trying to intrude on the draft floor.
4:04pm: TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that Jordan Staal rebuffed the Penguins contract extension offer and that Pittsburgh is now actively shopping him. Dreger doesn’t think anything is imminent as Staal is under contract for 2012-13.
4:05pm: The stage is much darker than in previous years. The NHL moved to a digital projector for its draft board. Gone is the manually operated board that had been present for all the years I’ve been watching. I always wondered whose job it was to create the 200+ name panels previously.
4:06pm: It’s a sausage fest.
4:07pm: Oh wait, TSN introduces Alyonka Larionov who will be doing some interviews with prospects which will be posted online.
4:08pm: Enter Gary Bettman. Commence booing.
4:11pm: The draft is finally underway with Edmonton with the top pick. The Oilers face a philosophical dilemma of “best player available” versus “best organizational fit.” They’ve built a decent stable of young forwards and seem primed to add a defenseman to the mix. The parallel would be when they drafted Paul Coffey to go along with Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier.
The consensus top pick is Russian winger Nail Yakupov. Most have Ryan Murray as the best available defenseman. The Oilers brass had seemingly narrowed the decision between those two. Momentum seemed to be swinging towards Murray.
Oilers President Kevin Lowe presided over the selection of Team Canada’s entry into this Spring’s World Championships. Typically rosters consist of NHL players not participating in the Stanley Cup playoffs. In a bit of a surprise, Lowe included Murray on the roster leading some to assume that the Edmonton braintrust wanted a firsthand look at Murray against NHL caliber competition.
Murray’s younger brother created a minor stir prior to the draft after posting something along the lines of “Looks like we’ll have to book some flights to Alberta” which insinuated that the Oilers had informed the Murray family of their intentions to draft him.
4:14pm: The Oilers instead draft Yakupov. This is reminiscent to the early 90s Quebec Nordiques loading up at forward. The Oilers have had three consecutive #1 picks which they’ve used on Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and now Yakupov. The Nordiques had three consecutive #1s which were used on Mats Sundin, Owen Nolan, and Eric Lindros. By the time Quebec/Colorado became contenders, they had shipped away all three (albeit Lindros was an extenuating circumstance).
Or more recently, the Penguins drafted Jordan Staal (rather than trade the pick for Jack Johnson) in 2006 despite having Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Yakupov drew comparisons to Alexander Mogilny and Pavel Bure, but with a physical edge. To dispel fears of the Russian Factor™, Yakupov played the last two seasons for Sarnia of the Ontario Hockey League. He set a franchise record for goals as a rookie with 49.
The previous record holder? Some guy named Steven Stamkos. Although to be fair, Stamkos did it at a 16 year old while Yakupov was 17 during his rookie year.
As things would turn out a few days later, Edmonton would sign highly touted prospect defenseman Justin Schultz who screwed refused to sign with Anaheim. It’s a bit of a surprise as many expected Schultz to be more interested in his home province team in Vancouver.
4:23pm: The dynamic of the NHL Draft that I love is that all 30 teams are physically in the building. When you have all 30 GMs and a ton of scouts confined in a small area, trades are going to get done (and seeds for future deals will be planted). Case in point, Darren Dreger informs the television audience that Anaheim has shipped Lubomir Visnovsky to the Islanders, while Dallas is trading Mike Ribeiro to Washington.
The hapless Columbus Blue Jackets are next up to the podium. Nobody’s quite sure which route they’ll go, although the assumption is Murray. The impending Rick Nash trade seems to cast a shadow over this pick.
4:24pm: The Blue Jackets nab Murray who’ll be a nice addition to their rebuilt blueline. Murray has drawn lofty comparisons to Scott Niedermayer and Ray Bourque. Still, there are others who worry that he’s closer to Dan Hamhuis (not to imply that Hamhuis is a poor player by any means).
Some were worried by Murray’s lack of eye popping offensive numbers. Playing for Everett in the WHL, Murray posted 31 points in 46 games which is solid but perhaps not quite the fantasy numbers you’d expect out of a #2 pick. By comparison, when Drew Doughty was a point per game over his last two junior seasons when he went #2 in 2008. Murray’s offensive production resembled that of Karl Alzner who is a solid defensive minded D in the NHL.
But it’s easy to overlook that Murray’s teammates in Everett simply aren’t that great (185 goals). Thus it is a difficult environment for a defender to rack up impressive offensive stats. During his draft year in 2004, Mike Green was in a similar situation playing for Saskatoon. Green posted 39 points while Saskatoon only netted 140 goals over 68 games. Suffice to say, Green’s offense translated (and then some) in the NHL.
With Jack Johnson and James Wisniewski on the same blueline, Murray won’t be counted on to be an immediate difference maker offensively.
4:30pm: Hard times for Montreal Canadiens fans this year. There were persistent rumors throughout the season that Patrick Roy was going to be brought back as the coach or perhaps GM. Roy insisted that he was very content as coach/GM/owner of the QMJHL’s Quebec Remparts. Montreal instead hired Marc Bergevin to be GM and brought back Michel Therrien for a 2nd stint as coach.
Earlier in the season, Roy maneuvered to draft Russian prospect Mikhail Grigorenko for his junior club in Quebec. Grigorenko tore things up early in the season to the point where Bob McKenzie’s mid-season rankings had him firmly at #2 behind Yakupov.
Grigorenko would suffer an ankle injury and struggle to finish the year. His stock would drop as some were fearing Grigorenko would be an enigma like Viktor Kozlov. But Roy was quick to defend his player in the media. So there was a thought that Roy, if he could be coaxed back to Montreal, would lobby to draft Grigorenko.
With Bergevin in charge, the team instead opted for another Russian player in Alex Galchenyuk who missed the entire season but maintained his status as a top prospect. There’s a bit of risk involved, but I liked the pick for Montreal.
Galchenyuk entered the year as a potential top 5 pick. He centered Yakupov in Sarnia and had a solid 83 point campaign in 2010-11. Yakupov was actually living with Galchenyuk’s family which gave off a bit of a Sedin Twin vibe. In the preseason, he’d tear his ACL and miss most of the season. He’d appear in a handful of games at the end but understandably didn’t appear to be 100%.
Without being able to see him play, scouts had to do a bit of projection (euphemism for guesswork) on Galchenyuk. Barring an injury setback, the usual comparables are Marian Hossa and Bobby Ryan.
Galchenyuk was actually born in Milwaukee while his father was playing in the minors during the early 90s. He’d grow up in Russia but would return to North America as a teenager. Galchenyuk will be representing Team USA in future international tournaments.
4:41pm: Might just be me, but Islanders GM Garth Snow is looking a bit more like Kevin Nash with each passing year. And this is always one of my favorite parts of the draft as Islanders owner Charles Wang brings up his grandson for the on stage photo op, rather than say one of their scouts……although to be fair, they aren’t the only club that does that.
Anyways, the Islanders seem likely to go defense with this pick. They have the benefit of choosing between Griffin Reinhart, Matt Dumba, Morgan Rielly, and Jacob Trouba. Like the Ninja Turtles, each of the four brings something different to the table. The Islanders opt for Reinhart who might be the ‘safest’ of the bunch but also might have the lowest offensive upside.
Reinhart is big and mobile, but not necessarily mean or expected to bring a ton of offense. My first thoughts as comparables are Braydon Coburn and Marc Staal who are both solid. Thought that the Islanders might lean towards Dumba, but Reinhart does have the size that the Islanders are lacking among their prospect D. TSN decides that Reinhart is the first prospect not worth interviewing.
After the draft, it would be revealed that the Islanders offered up their entire draft (seven picks in total) to move up two spots for Ryan Murray. The proposed deal was almost universally laughed at. Most joked that they didn’t know who was more idiotic: The Islanders for offering or the Blue Jackets for declining? I had the complete opposite reaction to the news, but I’ll save that for later ramblings.
4:47pm: Thanks to a change to the tiebreaker rules this year, Toronto has this pick instead of Anaheim. The general consensus is that the Leafs will aim for a forward, with a preference towards a center. Swedish winger Filip Forsberg seems the logical candidate as it seems a little early to take Radek Faksa or Zemgus Girgensons. Mikhail Grigorenko feels like the antithesis of a Brian Burke player.
Leafs instead make a mildly surprising pick of Morgan Rielly. Like Galchenyuk, Rielly would miss most of the season due to injury. Before getting hurt, Rielly seemed poised to challenge Ryan Murray for the honor of being the first defenseman selected. The typical comparable for Rielly is Duncan Keith.
Some Toronto fans were upset with the pick since it didn’t address an immediate need. But Rielly is probably a couple years away from competing for an NHL roster spot at which point Dion Phaneuf and Mike Komisarek could possibly leave via free agency.
Burke throws some gasoline onto the fire by declaring that Toronto had Rielly rated as the #1 prospect in the entire draft. For their sake, I hope that works out better than the time that Doug MacLean defiantly declared Columbus had Nik Zherdev ranked over Eric Staal in 2003.
4:57pm: TSN naturally focuses a ton of time analyzing Toronto before the pick and a ton of time interviewing GM Brian Burke afterwards about various topics. They cut to a commercial break and hastily resume live coverage with Anaheim literally announcing their selection.
The first real surprise of the draft has Anaheim taking Swedish defenseman Hampus Lindholm over Matt Dumba and Jacob Trouba. The general thought was that the Ducks would lean towards a defender, especially after they lost top prospect Justin Schultz who used a loophole to gain free agency. Schultz was ranked as the 21st best prospect by The Hockey News a few months earlier.
Analyst Pierre McGuire gives the viewers at home a random lesson in geography by mentioning that Lindholm plays in Rogle which is south of Gothenberg and north of Malmo. I would think the casual viewer has no idea where any of those cities are located and that Malmo sounds a lot like the dresser they bought from Ikea.
Lindholm’s scouting report seems eerily similar to Kenny Jonsson who happened to be one of his coaches in Rogle. Jonsson was an extremely solid NHL defender, but played in anonymity with the Islanders. Jonsson would stay in Sweden after the lockout. In 2006, Jonsson and Nicklas Lidstrom anchored the Gold Medal winning Swedes. Jonsson was a solid puckmoving defender who was above average defensively.
5:04pm: Midway through the season, Minnesota improbably was near the top of the NHL standings. Mathematically it didn’t make a ton of sense since their goal differential wasn’t what you’d expect from a true elite team. So it wasn’t particularly surprising to see them tumble in the 2nd half of the season. But they were rewarded with another high pick to add to their already well-stocked prospect pool.
They seemed primed to take a defender, despite Filip Forsberg unexpectedly being available. I figured they’d have one of Dumba/Rielly/Trouba available and that they’d take the leftover. With Anaheim drafting Lindholm earlier than expected, Minnesota had a choice between Dumba and Trouba. They opted for Dumba who might be the most YouTube friendly prospect of all the available D.
Dumba, who plays for the Red Deer Rebels, has said he emulates another former Red Deer defenseman in Dion Phaneuf. But Dumba is only 5’11 which makes some scouts worry about his physical play holding up in the NHL. He reminds me of a hybrid between Montreal’s P.K. Subban offensively and Detroit’s Niklas Kronwall in terms of hitting.
5:07pm: One fun wrinkle with the new digital projection screen is the ridiculous TRADE ALERT graphic that got displayed. The commish has gotten pretty good at milking a reaction out of trade announcements.
An hour earlier, Darren Dreger repported that nothing was imminent on the Jordan Staal front. So much for that. Gary Bettman announces that Pittsburgh has traded Staal to Carolina for Brandon Sutter, prospect defender Brian Dumoulin, and the 8th overall pick.
5:13pm: The draft hosts finally make their way to the stage. Filip Forsberg seems to make a ton of sense. The Pens have a decent wave of young D on their way and have now added Dumoulin to the mix. Forsberg seems a logical fit to play alongside Crosby or Malkin down the road.
…..but we have a slight upset. Pittsburgh takes another defender in Derrick Pouliot who draws comparisons to Brian Campbell. The Penguins used their 2011 top pick on Pouliot’s teammate Joe Morrow, so they’ve probably had quite a few looks at Pouliot by osmosis.
We’ll see how things play out down the road. Anaheim taking Lindholm over Dumba was the first surprise. Pittsburgh taking Pouliot over Forsberg was another one.
5:25pm: Lengthy delay………must mean a Canadian team is next. Winnipeg could use a little bit of everything, but they didn’t inherit much in the way of defense prospects from the Thrashers. But Forsberg would seemingly be the best player available at this point………
….but Winnipeg does address the blue line with American prospect Jacob Trouba. Trouba, 17, impressed midway through the season by making Team USA for the World Junior Championships as the team is typically comprised of 18 and 19 year old players. But down the stretch, scouts seemed to be concerned about Trouba’s puckmoving ability.
Although nobody questioned his physical play. TSN proudly shows a clip of an 11 year old Trouba destroying another kid with an open ice hit.
5:35pm: Tampa is next to the podium. Most GMs have a short spiel where they thank their hometown fans and/or thank the host city for their hospitality and/or congratulate whichever team won the Cup. But not Steve Yzerman. He immediately announces their pick of defenseman Slater Koekkoek (pronounced Koo-koo).
This is a little earlier than expected for Koekkoek as most pegged him somewhere in the 15-20 range. Much like Galchenyuk/Rielly, Koekkoek missed most of the year due to injury. Seems to project more as an unsexy 2nd pairing defenseman. Tampa had a greater ‘need’ for D, but could have been justified to take Forsberg here.
As TSN is about to cut away to commercial, cameras show a furious discussion brewing at the Washington Capitals’ draft table.
5:45pm: When the coverage resumes, the Capitals pow wow continues. One can only assume that they are stunned that Forsberg is still available and weren’t completely prepared for this scenario.
Washington previously acquired this pick from Colorado last summer in exchange for goaltender Semyon Varlamov. Many thought it was a short sighted move for Colorado, barely a week removed from drafting 2nd overall in the 2011 Draft, to trade a top pick for a goalie when there were some seemingly adequate free agents available–In particular, Tomas Vokoun expressed interest in the Avs.
Many feared that the Caps, who’d end up signing Vokoun, could contend for the Cup while simultaneously be in contention for the #1 pick in the Draft.
Colorado would improve but miss the playoffs. As a result, most figured Washington would get a 2nd tier prospect at #11. But it would seem like the Caps would indeed have a shot at a top tier prospect in Forsberg.
Caps GM George McPhee makes his way up to the microphone and is drowned out from booing Penguins fans. McPhee seems flustered. It’s too bad he didn’t do the Hulk Hogan hand-to-ear move to provoke the crowd further.
The Capitals do take Forsberg. They present him with a jersey that doesn’t have his nameplate which is the typical sign that a team was completely surprised he was still available (teams usually have a handful of pre-made nameplates that they can hastily attach to a blank jersey).
Throughout the season, Forsberg reminded me of somebody but I couldn’t quite put my finger on it. Heard some reports that compared him to Jarome Iginla or Corey Perry, but that seemed a bit lofty. Then it dawned on me: Alex Frolov.
So we’ll see if Forsberg turns out to be a star or a motivated Frolov. It’ll be fun that Forsberg landed in Washington as that’ll add more to the Washington/Pittsburgh rivalry (ie, in the sense that Pittsburgh passed on him).
5:50pm: Midway through the season, Mikhail Grigorenko was ranked as highly as #2 by some folks. But he faltered down the stretch as he battled injury. His Quebec Remparts blew a 3-1 series lead against Halifax (led by potential 2013 #1 overall pick Nathan McKinnon) in the playoffs. Many were now worried that he was shaping up to be another enigmatic Russian forward.
Meanwhile Buffalo missed the playoffs despite a free agent spending spree authorized by new owner Terry Pegula. The Sabres have been lacking a dynamic forward presence in recent years and end up taking Grigorenko here. Buffalo somehow coaxed a 1st rounder out of Nashville for impending free agent forward Paul Gaustad. Taking Grigorenko seems like a justifiable gamble with another pick forthcoming.
5:54pm: Alright, the pace is starting to pick up. Dallas could go in any direction, but the logical choices would seem to be Radek Faksa, Zemgus Girgensons, or Cody Ceci. Faksa and Girgensons are both potential #2 centers while Ceci is a right handed offensive minded blueliner which Dallas is lacking in their system.
GM Joe Nieuwendyk announces the selection of Faksa. TSN immediately launches into the human interest story of how Faksa left home at an early age to pursue his hockey dream. He’d end up leaving the Czech Republic to play in Canada for the Kitchener Rangers. Recently the Rangers have produced back-to-back Calder Trophy winners in Jeff Skinner and Gabriel Landeskog.
Faksa has good size and was lauded for physical play not usually expected from European players. The persistent question was whether his skating will improve. He also suffered a concussion during the OHL playoffs.
5:59pm: NBC Sports decides that it can only allocate two hours to the Draft. Since it’s an Olympic year, suddenly people care about track & field. So NBC cuts to a live broadcast of the US Olympic Trials. The third hour of the Draft will be broadcast on CNBC who for some reason cannot air the fourth (and final) hour.
6:03pm: TRADE ALERT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Calgary trades #14 to Buffalo for #21 and #42. Advantage: Buffalo. Historically the team trading up ends up with the better deal since the extra picks usually don’t result in anybody noteworthy. Meanwhile Pierre McGuire goes into full Pierre McGuire mode and lambastes the Flames for passing on defenseman Olli Maatta.
The Sabres take Latvian center Zemgus Girgensons who reminds some of Rod Brind’Amour. The question is whether it’ll be the 60 point Brind’Amour or the 45 point version. Girgensons seems like a nice contrast to the flashier Grigorenko down the road. If anything, they can pitch some sort of buddy comedy with the title “Grigs and Girgs.”
6:11pm: For the Canadian franchises, there’s typically some public pressure to draft a local kid. Teams usually have to remind fans that they can’t draft a player based on his address.
For Ottawa, it was amusing in 2008 when they passed on Tyler Cuma who was playing for the OHL’s Ottawa 67s. A local fan called it a “garbage pick” which was somehow enough proof for columnist Don Brennan. Who did Ottawa take instead of Cuma? Erik Karlsson……..2012 Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson. Meanwhile Cuma has struggled mightily since the 2008 Draft.
Quoting Brennan: “Karlsson won’t play in the NHL for a year or two or three, if he ever does. Real tough to get excited about him now.”
That’s one of the annoyances that I enjoy out of the NHL Draft. Journalists don’t follow prospects all year long (ie, their attention is on the NHL) but chime in as experts after the Draft.
…..anyways, the Senators can earn the support of Ottawa 67 fans this time around as they select Cody Ceci.
6:18pm: Washington makes a return visit to the podium with their own #1 pick. This pick was possibly a Joel Ward high stick away from being #27-30 instead of #16.
The Capitals have been dogged for their playoff failures in recent years. The general thought is that they’ve needed some size and grit rather than somebody like Alex Semin to get over the hump. Washington obliges by taking rugged 6’4 winger Tom Wilson.
If you’re going by the boxscores, Wilson doesn’t appear to be a typical 1st round pick. He only had 9 goals in 43 regular season games, but provided 13 points in 13 playoff contests. This is somewhat reminiscent to the Bruins drafting Milan Lucic in 2006 after he only had 9 goals in 62 games. Lucic would tally 30 goals the following year in the WHL and would soon after become a fixture on Boston.
And for those scoring at home, here is your first North American born (well, ignoring Galchenyuk) forward selected.
For me, it was a minor surprise that Washington didn’t take Olli Maatta. Maatta plays for the London Knights who are owned/coached by the Hunter brothers. Dale Hunter briefly was the Capitals coach in 2012 but chose to return to London after the playoffs. The split seemed amicable and Washington previously saw how well John Carlson developed during his year with the Hunters in London.
6:24pm: Speaking of mild surprises, Sharks GM Doug Wilson didn’t trade up in the first round. That’s something he’d done in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 (twice). Even without first round picks in 2008 and 2011, they traded up in later rounds.
I was hoping that the Sharks could take defenseman Matt Finn, if only for the potential cringe worthy headlines. But instead, they select Czech center Tomas Hertl who compared favorably to countryman Radek Faksa. Hertl stayed in the Czech Republic and put up great numbers against much older competition. Like Faksa, the general worry about Hertl is whether his skating will hold him back.
Quoting TSN analyst Gord Miller: “One of the reasons for [San Jose making the playoffs every year since the lockout], San Jose rarely misses in the early part of the Draft.”
2003: Steve Bernier (15th overall), Zach Parise (17th overall), Ryan Getzlaf (19th overall)
2004: Lukas Kaspar (22nd overall), Andrej Meszaros (23rd overall), Mike Green (29th overall)
2005: Devin Setoguchi (8th overall), Marc Staal (10th overall), Anze Kopitar (11th overall)
2006: Ty Wishart (16th overall), Chris Stewart (18th overall), Claude Giroux (22nd overall)
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6:29pm: The Blackhawks head to the stage and end up having prospect Brandon Saad, a Pittsburgh native, announce the selection. A year ago, I sat near Saad as he unexpectedly dropped out of the first round of the draft. Chicago would take him in the middle of the 2nd round. Saad would surprisingly earn a spot on their opening night lineup before being returned to juniors.
Speaking of guys unexpectedly dropping, forward Tuevo Teravainen joins fellow Finn Olli Maatta as guys still uncomfortably sitting in the crowd. Chicago takes Teravainen who is a smallish skilled forward in the ilk of Saku Koivu. Some thought Teravainen would be a top 10 pick and be the Finnish Jeff Skinner.
6:35pm: With the Devils selecting 29th, I only had a handful of prospects on my wish list. One was Russian goalie Andrei Vasilevski. I figured if Tampa passed on him, there was a decent chance he’d be available at #29.
Tampa had earlier acquired Anders Lindback from Nashville to presumably be their goalie of the present and indefinite future. Plus Tampa GM Steve Yzerman had apprenticed in Detroit where they typically didn’t use high picks on goaltenders.
6:36pm: Bah. Steve Yzerman squashes that thought and takes Vasilevski.
6:39pm: Next up on my wish list is center Scott Laughton.
6:40pm: #$@#$@# Philadelphia takes Laughton with the #20 pick. Bob McKenzie mentions that Laughton plays a style similar to Mike Richards and everybody has a laugh about “didn’t they trade Richards away?”
Meanwhile, TSN is publishing various fan tweets. One Flyers fan chimes in with something like “I can’t believe we didn’t take a defenseman.” This is a bit of a typical mentality from a fan who’s unfamiliar with the draft process. Fans expect the NHL draft to be like the NFL Draft in terms of immediate results. In the NFL, you’re usually drafting guys who are 21-23 years old. In the NHL, you’re usually taking 17-18 year olds. It’s going to be a couple years before most of the 2nd tier prospects to sniff at a roster spot. By then, your needs can be completely different.
Take the St. Louis Blues for instance. In 2009, they drafted David Rundblad with their top pick. Rundblad was an offensive minded right handed defenseman. The Blues already had 2006 1st overall pick Erik Johnson along with 2008 4th overall pick Alex Pietrangelo. The common sentiment was that they should have picked a forward. The following year, they traded Rundblad for a pick which they used on winger Vladimir Tarasenko. Tarasenko is considered by many to be a top 5 prospect now. The Blues would have been worse off if they had pigeonholed themselves to a forward in 2009.
6:48pm: Calgary is now up. Remember when Pierre McGuire blew a gasket over Calgary passing on Olli Maatta? He’s still available at #21.
But Calgary opts for center Mark Jankowski which is now one of the more debated picks of the first round. Generally high end prospects are filtered into a finite number of leagues. But occasionally there will be a well regarded prospect who comes out of a 2nd or 3rd tier league. Usually there’s some cynicism with those players as fans worry that it’s a “big fish in a little pond” scenario and that the prospect will falter against better competition.
Jankowski had gone undrafted in the OHL and instead was going to attend Providence College. Over the last 18 months, he grew from 5’9 to 6’3 and suddenly garnered more NHL interest. Most expect Jankowski to be a 4+ year project however as he hasn’t had adequate time to build up the bulk on his frame.
(On a side note, am I the only one creeped out by the YouTube preview image for this video? As if Jankowski’s younger brother in the purple shirt looks like a paper cutout.)
I wondered if Jankowski was on New Jersey’s radar. Devils GM Lou Lamoriello’s alma mater was Providence where he also coached hockey and later became athletic director prior to joining the Devils in 1987. The Devils always seem to have a couple former Providence players in the organization somewhere.
6:56pm: Pittsburgh is back and they seemingly get a gift with Olli Maatta still available. He projects to be something like a Paul Martin which could be ironic since Martin is currently maligned in Pittsburgh after a rough season. Decent size, good skater but probably not a top unit power play guy.
6:59pm: The CNBC broadcast is ending. What urgent programming do they have to show instead? A repeat episode of American Greed. The announcer tells fans to change the channel to the NHL Network for the remainder of the Draft. Pfft. Time Warner still doesn’t offer NHL Network in my area.
7:02pm: It’s 2012. I shouldn’t have to try to find a stream of the draft on some random European website.
7:10pm: Finally found a working stream. I pray I didn’t download a virus from the site. Apparently I missed Florida drafting USHL defenseman Michael Matheson.
NHL.com and various other media outlets put out mock drafts prior to the real thing. And most of them are largely terrible. (Here was my slightly better mock for comparison.) Red Line Report’s mock was a bit puzzling in regards to the Florida pick.
They had Florida taking goaltender Oscar Dansk under the logic that “nobody need to inject young netminding blood into their system more urgently than the Panthers.” On the surface, it would make sense. Incumbent #1 goalie Jose Theodore would be turning 36. Backup goalie Scott Clemmensen (who was an impending free agent) was a month away from turning 35.
Apparently the author forgot that the Panthers already have arguably the best goaltending prospect in 22 year old Jacob Markstrom. Markstrom is much closer to being NHL ready than any of the goalies from the 2012 Draft. Even after Markstrom, the Panthers have a nice sleeper prospect in 20 year old Sam Brittain who has impressed me the handful of games I’ve watched DU. If anything, the Panthers were one of the teams least likely to take a goalie.
7:16pm: Boston takes goaltender Malcolm Subban. I didn’t expect Boston to be in the market for a goalie, but it did make sense in retrospect. Tim Thomas’ tenure in Boston might be over after he announced he wouldn’t play in 2012-13. The Bruins have Tuukka Rask to take over immediately, but didn’t have a high end prospect as insurance.
TSN immediately plays up the Boston/Montreal rivalry getting a new wrinkle with the addition of P.K. Subban’s younger brother.
While I liked Vasilevski for the Devils, I was much more tepid about Subban. Something about his playing style gave me a Pascal Leclaire-y vibe.
7:26pm: My stream goes kaput. By the time I find another one, I miss another pick. St. Louis selects defenseman Jordan Schmaltz. The Blues are pretty stacked everywhere, but taking an offensive minded RH D despite having Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk seemed unexpected. You’d think I would have learned from the previous story about taking Rundblad while having Johnson/Pietrangelo.
7:30pm: Next up is the dreaded #26 spot which is reserved for the team that had the best regular season record but failed to advance past the 2nd round of the playoffs. This year’s unfortunate representative is Vancouver.
They tab center Brendan Gaunce who was ranked higher by most, but drew a cautionary “closer to Wayne Primeau than Keith Primeau” comparison from analyst Craig Button.
7:34pm: The Devils are nearly at the on deck circle and I’m not particularly thrilled with what’s left. A pair of Swedes, goalie Oscar Dansk and winger Sebastian Collberg, are the only ones left on my educated guess wish list.
7:36pm: Seattle Quebec Hamilton Phoenix is up next and I successfully connected the dots to them taking Henrik Samuelsson.
With the early 90s expansion/relocation, there are some prospects starting to come from non-traditional places like California, Texas, and Florida. While not to the degree of scrutiny of the Canadian teams, there is some pressure for these teams to select locally born prospects. In recent years, we’ve seen Nashville draft Blake Geoffrion who was born in Tennessee. The Stars drafted Dallas native Austin Smith. The Ducks selected Emerson Etem who grew up in Long Beach. The Sharks recently signed Matt Tennyson who graduated high school in Pleasanton.
Ulf Samuelsson spent recent years as an assistant coach in Phoenix. Meanwhile his son Henrik was playing locally in Arizona before joining the US Development program. He’d begin the season as a possible top 15 pick.
Henrik would follow his father to Sweden this year, but would get lost in the shuffle amongst more experienced players. He’d then play juniors in Edmonton while living with Kevin Lowe. Many figured the Oilers would be tempted to draft him if he were available at #32.
Samuelsson’s upside seems to be as a pesky 3rd liner capable of putting up some offense.
7:41pm: The Rangers are next (BOOOOOOOOOO). Many figure they will take Stefan Matteau if only for the name value. Matteau’s father Stephane scored a famous goal in 1994 which put the Rangers into the Stanley Cup Finals. Seeing that video over and over is always tremendous fun as a Devils fan. Going into game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, ESPN dusted off that video and played it throughout the day. They almost seemed to play it up like a curse……because it wasn’t like the Devils won three Stanley Cups after that or anything.
The Blue Shirts take defenseman Brady Skjei who projects very similarly to current Ranger defenseman Ryan McDonagh. Fantastic skater but not necessarily a big point producer. I was mildly surprised that St. Louis bypassed him at #25.
7:47pm: The Devils brass is walking up to the stage. This pick was of great debate amongst Devils fans. But it wasn’t about which prospect should be taken. It was about whether the team should forfeit the pick.
The NHL penalized the Devils for signing Ilya Kovalchuk to a 17 year, 102 million dollar deal which was deemed to circumvent the rules of the salary cap. Unlike most Devils fans, I agreed with the NHL’s assessment. Many teams had gone the way of signing players to 13+ year contracts to mask their cap hits and the line had to be drawn somewhere.
Part of the punishment requires the Devils to forfeit one 1st round pick between 2011 and 2014. Each year after the Finals are concluded, the Devils have 24 hours to inform the NHL if they intend to forfeit the pick at the upcoming draft. The Devils naturally kept their 2011 pick which ended up being #4 overall. When the Devils made the Conference Finals, this year’s pick was guaranteed to be #28, #29, or #30. It appeared likely that they would forfeit this pick rather than risk losing a higher pick in 2013 or 2014.
After the Stanley Cup Finals, Devils fans waited for confirmation that the pick was being forfeited. During the playoffs, the Devils were going through the usual motions and bringing in various 1st round prospects for private workouts and interviews. Despite that, I thought they’d forfeit the pick.
To the shock of many, New Jersey decided to keep the pick. There was a little confusion at first as Devils GM Lou Lamoriello told a reporter that the deadline had not been reached yet. NHL Deputy VP Bill Daly said otherwise. Lamoriello would then state that the decision to keep this year’s pick had been made weeks ago. I couldn’t help but wonder if that was a damage control statement.
It was also announced that 2013 NHL Draft would be hosted in New Jerseyl It’d be unlikely that the team would forfeit a pick the year that they were the hosts. So signs point to 2014 being the year that the Devils will eventually pay their fine.
On one hand, I can understand the rationale that you wouldn’t necessarily trade a late first rounder in 2012 for a first rounder in 2014. You would give up a couple years of development and possibly end up with a similar caliber prospect. The guy you take in 2012 might be able to contribute by 2014/15. The guy you take in 2014 might not be ready until 2016 or beyond.
But on the other hand, it seems pretty risky in case something screwy (see the first half of 2010-11) were to happen.
Back on stage, Devils head scout David Conte announces that they’re taking Stefan Matteau. TSN cannot put the Stephane Matteau OT goal on the screen fast enough. Just when I thought I’d never have to see that goal again…….
I’m not particularly thrilled with the pick, but I wasn’t that enthusiastic about Dansk/Collberg either. Matteau profiles as something of a Scott Hartnell, Ryane Clowe, or Ryan Malone type. I suppose I’d feel a lot better if his name was Stefan Stevens, Stefan Brodeur, or even Stefan Savard.
The decision to keep this pick will be a hot topic amongst Devils fans for years to come.
7:54pm: The Kings wrap up the first round. Columbus had the option to take this pick as part of the Jeff Carter/Jack Johnson trade. But Columbus decided to take the Kings’ 2013 1st round pick instead. This makes me irrationally worried that even Columbus wasn’t a fan of the remaining players left, yet the Devils kept the pick.
If the Kings have one weakness in their pipeline, it’d be left wing. So I expected them to take Tanner Pearson or Phil di Giuseppe. The latter attends the University of Michigan and Kings GM Dean Lombardi had some harsh words for long time Wolverines head coach Red Berenson. Not realizing he was on the record, Lombardi told a blogger that Jack Johnson was poorly coached during his two years at Michigan. Johnson had to be reprogrammed when he reached the NHL where he was still spotty defensively. Lombardi also implied that the same thing happened to him while he was in San Jose with another highly touted Wolverine D prospect Jeff Jillson.
Quoting Lombardi: “For hockey people, if you’ve got a choice between a kid—all things being equal—one’s going to Michigan and one’s going to Boston University, you all want your player [going to Boston University].”
….and the Kings select Tanner Pearson. Pearson was an interesting story as well. He went undrafted not once, but twice. Pearson got off to a quick start and earned a spot on Canada’s World Junior team last season. His production would fade down the stretch, but he still managed to finish 3rd in OHL scoring behind Michael Sgarbossa and fellow Kings prospect Tyler Toffoli.
Pearson being two years older than most other 2012 draftees also means he’s more likely to challenge for an NHL spot sooner than others. While most draftees will be returned to juniors, Pearson will play 2012-13 in the AHL.
7:59pm: Round 1 of the Draft concludes. Several prospects have a very long night as they still are waiting to hear their fates. I can now get off the couch and go to my friend’s birthday party. Priorities.
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6:58am: Day 2 begins at 10am locally in Pittsburgh, which means it’s happening at 7am here.
7:00am: Yeah, no. Hit the snooze.
7:49am: Crap. I still need to pack for my two week vacation and my flight leaves in a few hours.
7:53am: I turn on the computer and check to see who’s been picked. 2nd day picks are much more rapid than done on the first day. Teams no longer trot up to the stage but instead announce their selections from the draft floor.
My Swede man crushes are quickly taken off the board. Columbus tabs Dansk with #31 while Montreal takes Collberg #33. Between those two picks, Edmonton raises some eyebrows by selecting Edmonton Oil King forward Mitch Moroz. Some had thought Edmonton would take Henrik Samuelsson if he had been available at this spot. Samuelsson was living with Oilers President Kevin Lowe. But they seemingly reach for a different Edmonton power forward in Moroz who they hope is a Milan Lucic-project for them. Many Oiler fans are unhappy since they wanted defense along with the feeling that Moroz could have been available in the 3rd round.
Other notable picks:
– Anaheim selects Irvine native Nic Kerdiles at #36. Kerdiles was initially ruled ineligible for the University of Wisconsin this year. After an appeal, the sentence was reduced to 10 games. What was the issue? Allegedly, Kerdiles was pictured with other prospects holding some energy drinks which the NCAA interpreted as a possible product endorsement which negated his amateur status.
– Detroit takes Czech forward Martin Frk at #49. While somebody like Galchenyuk maintained his draft status despite being hurt, Frk had a rough year with injuries and fell. Frk entered the year as a possible top 10 pick. Lately there are fan generated slogans for tanking teams such as “Fall for Hall”, “Lose for Larsson”, or “Fail for Nail.” With Frk’s stock dropping, “Tnk for Frk” never quite took off. But leave it to Detroit to take a decently high upside European with their 2nd rounder.
– The Devils use the 60th overall pick on Kelowna defenseman Damon Severson. The Devils brass indicated that they were not targeting a defenseman but had to take Severson since they ranked him much higher. It remains to be seen, but Kelowna has had a great track record of developing D of late: Duncan Keith, Shea Weber, Josh Gorges, Luke Schenn, and Tyler Myers. Severson shares similar height/weight (along with an August birthday) with Weber.
8:03am: I’m packing for Seattle (where it’ll be raining) and New York (where it’ll be oppressively hot). Awesome.
8:34am: Third round is in the books. Montreal again seemingly gets nice value with Tim Bozon (#64). There’s a run on the second tier goalies as seven are selected in this stanza. Projecting 18 year old goalies has proven to be difficult, so some teams tend to shy away from using a top pick on one and instead draft them in bulk later.
At the beginning of the season, New Jersey native Nick Ebert looked to be a potential top 5 pick. But his play deteriorated as Windsor lost several key cogs to the pros. Ebert suddenly didn’t look that great with the added responsibility.
With one of the Devils’ head scouts stationed in Windsor, many figured Ebert could be a potential pick. In the third round, the Devils did indeed take a Windsor Spitfire but it was forward Ben Johnson rather than Ebert.
The last time the Devils took a Windsor Spitfire in the third round, it was Adam Henrique in 2008. Just by association, this pick feels alright……although Johnson projects more of a checking line forward if he makes the NHL.
9:10am: If I were smarter, I would have packed last night.
9:13am: Round 4 in the books. Russian winger Anton Slepyshev still readily available. Most figured Slepyshev would go by round 2 and was a borderline 1st round prospect if not for his passport. But at this point it seems safe to assume that NHL teams found some sort of red flag regarding his intentions to stay in Russia.
Devils bypass Ebert yet again at #96. Instead of Slepyshev, the Kings use pick #121 on a different Russian winger in Nikolai Prokhorkin.
9:44am: All packed and ready to go. Rounds 5 and 6 in the books as only a handful of names look familiar. Devils bypass Ebert again with their last pick at #180. Slepyshev also remains undrafted.
10:25am: The Kings make Ebert Mr. Irrelevant by drafting him with the final pick in the draft (#211). Slepyshev goes undrafted as thirty fan bases voice their displeasure on the Internets.
10:26am: The draft concludes as we head into the abyss of another lockout.
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